Worthington Ohio real estate

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Sorry to spoil the party, but we're not at the bottom!

Feb. 2013  CLOSING comments on this old post because of SPAM.

This is a Re-blog of Spencer Rascoff   COO of Zilow post about their recent report of US Home Value Appreciation for the first quarter of 2009. 

I have a post that will focus on Central Ohio (the value of homes in the Columbus MSA) written and ready to go....  real estate is local. 

 

 

 

There's an interesting thread in Zillow Advice right now discussing whether we're at a bottom in the housing market. And the discussion is very timely because today Zillow released its 1st Quarter Home Value Report, detailing what is happening to home values in 161 cities. It's by far the most comprehensive report about the housing market in terms of its breadth and depth. True, individual Zestimates have their issues (more about Zestimate accuracy), but the Zillow Home Value Index is very reliable because it has enough aggregated data to wash away inaccurate Zestimates -- in other words, statistically speaking, for every Zestimate that's too low, there's another one that's equally too high, so the ZHVI is highly reliable.

So, what does the data say?

First a reminder about methodology. Zillow's reports speak to the value of almost every single home in the country, not just those that sold in the period. This is a very improtant distinction, especially in the current market environment in which less expensive homes have become a much bigger part of the market than traditionally. As a result, data that reports on median sales price (e.g., NAR's data) is very unreliable and dramatically overstates the level of decline to the typical homeowner. I previously discussed the unreliability of median sale price here.

OK, here are the highlights -- er, the lowlights, I mean:

  • the USA ZHVI (the median value of almost every home in America) declined 14.2% in 1Q09 versus 1Q08, the 9th straight declining quarter
  • Americans lost about $700 billion in home values in the 1st quarter alone
  • 1 in 5 American homeowners (20.4 million homes) are now underwater on their mortgage

 

Was there any good news?

  • A few markets were bright spots, including Fayettville NC (military bases) Oklahoma City (solid local economy) actually gained in value
  • Some markets that have been very hard hit (e.g., Los Angeles and San Diego) are no longer increasing in the rate of decline. In other words, although home values are still declining there, they're not declining any faster than they already had been declining. So things are still bad, and getting worse, but not getting more worse. I guess that passes for "good news" nowadays.

And now for the really bad news:

  • There is a massive amount of "shadow inventory" waiting to come online. Specifically, 12% of homeowners say they're "very likely" to put their home on the market if there was evidence that the market was turning around. Another 8% were "likely" and another 12% were "somewhat likely". In short, there might be another ~20 million homes waiting in the wings to come onto the market as we see signs of a recovery. When asked what "sign of recovery" they needed, 71% said "increasing home sales in my neighborhood". That's a massive amount of potential new listings, when considering our current ~4 million listings. To be fair, some of the current 4 million would have been sold before those new sellers come on the market. But the point is the same: as I said in Forbes, this is going to be an L-shaped recovery. New listings are going to come onto the market rapidly as soon as people believe we've bottomed, and the new listings will sop up what little new demand there is.

Sorry to be a party-pooper. I'm not going to spin things overly positively or overly negatively. I'm just calling it like I see it.

 

 

Links:

Zillow Home Value Reports media room

Master spreadsheet for the USA

Find all 161 cities here

Stan Humphries' (Zillow's head of analytics) post on Zillowblog

 

 

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Comment balloon 4 commentsMaureen McCabe • May 07 2009 06:30AM

Comments

Well, I think many areas had hit bottom over the past year, things are starting to look up. Yes I know this post is almost four years old. ;)
Posted by Pete Xavier, Outstanding Agent Referrals-Nationwide (Investments to Luxury) about 6 years ago

Pete are you somehow involved with the spam on ActiveRain?  This is the second time I have received an email that you have commented on an old, old post to find the comment a few minutes before is a big, old hairy comment spam.  I wrote a post about it last time.  This time I will use the Contact ActiveRain button as well as the Report a concern button, for both the spam comment and your comment. 

 

Reported the 3:20 AM spam comment in number one and the comment from a member 3 minutes later. 

 

Pete "Thee Ox" Xavier-Coastal California Real Estate (Orange County Investment & Luxury Real Estate)

 

Posted by Maureen McCabe, Columbus Ohio Real Estate (HER Realtors) about 6 years ago

Hi Maureen,

I help clean up that spam at night, I sometimes make comments on posts that are in the last comment section and it comes up when spammed.

 

Posted by Pete Xavier, Outstanding Agent Referrals-Nationwide (Investments to Luxury) about 6 years ago

The spam comment is left minutes before your comment.  Comment # 2 was left minutes before your comment #3.  You aren't cleaning up spam you are involved in it. 

Sometimes there is old spam on the posts too.

Your BS email that came through ActiveRain explaining this came with a warning that your gmail address may be  involved in Phishing.

Contact from Pete Xavier-Orange County Investment To Luxury Properties-California-GRI: Spam
Read more
about 10 hours ago
 
 
 

  

Posted by Maureen McCabe, Columbus Ohio Real Estate (HER Realtors) about 6 years ago

Participate