Worthington Ohio real estate

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Columbus doesn't look bad; Zillow's NOT calling the bottom nationally

snippet of Zillow map of Northern Franklin CountyColumbus is one of the 161 cities in Zillow's Index, of course.  Spencer Rascoff of Zillow wrote of the ZHVI (Zillow Home Value Index):  Sorry to spoil the party, but we're not at the bottom!

... Zillow is not yet calling the bottom of the home price drop.

Zillow is different than the numbers that Realtor.com,  the Ohio Association of Realtors, Columbus Board of Realtors or really anyone else put out.  Those are based on home sales.  The Zillow Home Value Index is based on ALL homes.  Well almost all. 

Do you get it?  Zillow makes their proclaimations of value based on the value of all homes, not the homes that are on the market, just sold or failed to sell... they value all homes, continually.

Zillow.com is the company many Realtors love to hate... but that's about the Zestimates (value of a home) not the ZHVI isn't it? 

Of home values Spencer wrote: "True, individual Zestimates have their issues (more about Zestimate accuracy), but the Zillow Home Value Index is very reliable because it has enough aggregated data to wash away inaccurate Zestimates -- in other words, statistically speaking, for every Zestimate that's too low, there's another one that's equally too high, so the ZHVI is highly reliable."

Columbus MSA Charts

 

  • Appreciation of Home Values 
  • Negative Equity Map
  • Negative Equity Chart 
  • Appreciation Map of Home Values  

The image? A little modern art?  No the image here is a snippet of the part of the map of Columbus...  just an itty bitty portion.  Red is best, dark blue is worst... the legend on the map shows the percentages.

Appreciation Map of Home Values look at the reddish areas!  Those area dropped least in values in the first quarter of 2009 (all homes not just those that sold.)  Do you know what your ZIP code looks like by shape?  This map is by ZIP code of course....  I can pick out 43085,43235, 43065 etc. 43016, 43229, 43081, 43014, etc. etc...

Real estate is really, really local...  should buyers be lulled by generalizations about the value of homes dropping nationally??? or really even by ZIP code.   A ZIP code is not the homogenouse.  Buyers can miss out on some great homes... if they wait for lower prices.

More about Zillow:

A Re-Blog of Spencer's post: sorry to spoil the party but we are not at the bottom  

Zillow Zestimate of $1.5 millon on an $8.5 -$9 million home

"a fun voyueristic tool"

Not 100% sure what your ZIP code looks like use - ZIP code map

More about Home Value

Case Shiller numbers can be skewed from a Zillow employee

 

Provided by Maureen McCabe Real Living HER Worthington

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This post provided by Maureen McCabe of Real Living HER

Contact 614.388.8249

Website: MaureenMcCabe.com

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Information is deemed to be accurate but should be verified to your satisfaction.  Information provided herein is supplied by several sources and is subject to change without notice.  Opinions expressed are solely those of Maureen McCabe.

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4 comments • Maureen McCabe Columbus Ohio real estate • May 07 2009 06:35AM

Sorry to spoil the party, but we're not at the bottom!

 

This is a Re-blog of Spencer Rascoff   COO of Zilow post about their recent report of US Home Value Appreciation for the first quarter of 2009. 

I have a post that will focus on Central Ohio (the value of homes in the Columbus MSA) written and ready to go....  real estate is local. 

 

 

Via Spencer Rascoff (Zillow):

 

There's an interesting thread in Zillow Advice right now discussing whether we're at a bottom in the housing market. And the discussion is very timely because today Zillow released its 1st Quarter Home Value Report, detailing what is happening to home values in 161 cities. It's by far the most comprehensive report about the housing market in terms of its breadth and depth. True, individual Zestimates have their issues (more about Zestimate accuracy), but the Zillow Home Value Index is very reliable because it has enough aggregated data to wash away inaccurate Zestimates -- in other words, statistically speaking, for every Zestimate that's too low, there's another one that's equally too high, so the ZHVI is highly reliable.

So, what does the data say?

First a reminder about methodology. Zillow's reports speak to the value of almost every single home in the country, not just those that sold in the period. This is a very improtant distinction, especially in the current market environment in which less expensive homes have become a much bigger part of the market than traditionally. As a result, data that reports on median sales price (e.g., NAR's data) is very unreliable and dramatically overstates the level of decline to the typical homeowner. I previously discussed the unreliability of median sale price here.

OK, here are the highlights -- er, the lowlights, I mean:

  • the USA ZHVI (the median value of almost every home in America) declined 14.2% in 1Q09 versus 1Q08, the 9th straight declining quarter
  • Americans lost about $700 billion in home values in the 1st quarter alone
  • 1 in 5 American homeowners (20.4 million homes) are now underwater on their mortgage

 

Was there any good news?

  • A few markets were bright spots, including Fayettville NC (military bases) Oklahoma City (solid local economy) actually gained in value
  • Some markets that have been very hard hit (e.g., Los Angeles and San Diego) are no longer increasing in the rate of decline. In other words, although home values are still declining there, they're not declining any faster than they already had been declining. So things are still bad, and getting worse, but not getting more worse. I guess that passes for "good news" nowadays.

And now for the really bad news:

  • There is a massive amount of "shadow inventory" waiting to come online. Specifically, 12% of homeowners say they're "very likely" to put their home on the market if there was evidence that the market was turning around. Another 8% were "likely" and another 12% were "somewhat likely". In short, there might be another ~20 million homes waiting in the wings to come onto the market as we see signs of a recovery. When asked what "sign of recovery" they needed, 71% said "increasing home sales in my neighborhood". That's a massive amount of potential new listings, when considering our current ~4 million listings. To be fair, some of the current 4 million would have been sold before those new sellers come on the market. But the point is the same: as I said in Forbes, this is going to be an L-shaped recovery. New listings are going to come onto the market rapidly as soon as people believe we've bottomed, and the new listings will sop up what little new demand there is.

Sorry to be a party-pooper. I'm not going to spin things overly positively or overly negatively. I'm just calling it like I see it.

 

 

Links:

Zillow Home Value Reports media room

Master spreadsheet for the USA

Find all 161 cities here

Stan Humphries' (Zillow's head of analytics) post on Zillowblog

 

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This post provided by Maureen McCabe of Real Living HER

Contact 614.388.8249

Website: MaureenMcCabe.com

Search Columbus mls online


email: MaureenatMaureenMcCabe.com   @

Information is deemed to be accurate but should be verified to your satisfaction.  Information provided herein is supplied by several sources and is subject to change without notice.  Opinions expressed are solely those of Maureen McCabe.

Non Member comments occasionally closed due to heavy spam! 


 

0 comments • Maureen McCabe Columbus Ohio real estate • May 07 2009 06:30AM

Why Case Shiller Numbers Can Be Skewed

 

The good stuff here "Why Case Shiller Numbers Can Be Skewed" is from Sara Bonert of Zillow. This is a reblog of Sara's post about Standard & Poor's Case Shiller report.  


The Columbus Metro Area is NOT one of the 20 Metro Areas in the index.  Cleveland is. Cleveland looked darn good to me when I looked at the report, but Cleveland and Columbus are very different.

The petty stuff here is mine... taking umbrage for the whole middle part of the US is all mine.   I first noticed the Case Shiller October 2008 results because of a tweet (a post on Twitter) from Chris Pearson author of the Thesis Theme for WordPress blogs and S. California resident who tweets as @Pearsonified on Twitter:

Chris Pearson's tweet about undesirable cities


Although Pearson did not mention any cities in particular I bristled at Pearson's "least desirable cities"....  and "older cities that are closer to the midwest /and or are colder" was he talking about the midwest or cities that are close to the midwest...



Pearson had started out innocently enough discussing a cool graphic on the front page of the NYT site yesterday. His prior tweet:

NYT tweet from Chris Pearson

 

Here's the link to the graphic Peasrson was referring to: October Housing Prices Graphic - New York Times 

 

Pearson did correct himself and of coure the Metro Areas in the Case Shiller Index with the largest decreases are NOT in the midwest or even near the cold midwest... the numbers are there... in the Case Shiller 20 metro area price index. "Eh, upon further review,....

Upon further review

Without further ado, here is Sara Bonert's post, the one that puts the Case Shiller Index in perspective.... without any ruffled feathers over desirability, or cold, or old.  ;-)

Thanks Sara.

 

 

 

Via Sara Bonert {Real Estate Internet Marketing} (Zillow):

Today Inman reported the latest Case Shiller numbers came out:

"A monthly home-price index that tracks price changes in 20 U.S. metro areas dropped 18 percent in October compared to the same month last year...The year-over-year decline was the largest on record for the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-metro area price index, which dates back over two decades..."

I wanted to bring some attention to the way these numbers are calculated, as there are some strong biases which could potentially skew these numbers. 

The Case Shiller index was invented in the 60's using a methodology that weighted repeat sales data.  Before this people simply looked at price changes between repeat sales of a particular home, verses looking at median sales price data for a certain time period, to figure appreciation/depreciation rates.

However, when you look at the median sales prices, the number is going to be heavily influenced by the type of homes that are selling at the given time.  For example, in my neighborhood right now one and two bedroom condos are still moving at a decent clip.  However more expensive, single family homes are taking much longer to sell. So if I were to look at median sales for my neighborhood, given that more of these less expensive houses will sell this year than last year, it will make the median sales price look lower.  The Index would be biased by the sheer fact that more, smaller condos are selling right now.  If housing prices would have remained constant, but more cheaper houses are moving, it would make an area look like it is depreciating, when in fact this may not be true. 

Further, the Case Shiller Index looks only at homes that have been sold at least twice.  So if you live in an area that has a high density of new construction, much of the sold inventory will not be taken into account to the Index, and thus could skew your numbers as well. 

The final point to keep in mind about the Case Shiller number is that it reports on a monthly basis with a two month data lag.  We all know what a wild ride real estate has been these past few years and how quickly things can change.  A three month data lag could potentially mean a lot in dollars lost or gained for a local market. 

At the end of the day, the Index is just an index.  It, like many other stats out there, is nice to help you get an idea of general market conditions.  However, it is important to consult with a professional, who has feet on the street, to get the real picture. 

 

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This post provided by Maureen McCabe of Real Living HER

Contact 614.388.8249

Website: MaureenMcCabe.com

Search Columbus mls online


email: MaureenatMaureenMcCabe.com   @

Information is deemed to be accurate but should be verified to your satisfaction.  Information provided herein is supplied by several sources and is subject to change without notice.  Opinions expressed are solely those of Maureen McCabe.

Non Member comments occasionally closed due to heavy spam! 


 

3 comments • Maureen McCabe Columbus Ohio real estate • December 31 2008 10:20AM

"a fun, voyeuristic tool"

eye keyhole

No, no not more Zillow!  Yes more Zillow.com ... but more Trulia.com too.  

According to a December 7, blog entry on The Real Estate Economy "Zillow is an ad-driven content site designed for buyers and nosey neighbors, or in the words of a Trulia staffer"...  "a fun, voyeuristic tool."

Maybe it's the use of an Alexa.com traffic graph that attracted me.. to the first December 7 entry on The Real Estate Economy about  "where Zillow took a wrong turn in it's strategy relative to Trulia"  called "How Trulia.com out-flanked Zillow"

 

The Real Estate Economy blog's second Zillow post December 7, 2006 was  the breaking news titled:   "Zillow re-positions itself as a property listing site"  blogger Paul Kaihla wrote:

"At the very moment I was posting this morning about where Zillow took a wrong turn in its strategy relative to Trulia, Zillow announced that it is stepping squarely onto Trulia's turf by listing actual homes for sale on its site." 

The Alex.com traffic graph on Kaihla's 'How Trulia.com out-flanked Zillow"  shows Zillow with more traffic... will allowing sellers, and listing brokerages add listings on the site propel traffic Zillow traffic higher?  Are sellers and listings brokerages going to flock to a tool designed for buyers and nosey neighbors?  Only time will tell.

Read  "How Trulia.com Out-Flanked Zillow "  and help me with the history on The Real Estate Economy...who is J. Edgar Hoover?  Who is President Lyndon B. Johnson (an earthy president if we ever had one) in Kaihlla's analogy....?

From Trulia.com Blog,   Are agents in trouble?    Kaihla of The Real Estate Economy referred to this as a love letter to REALTORS® from Sami Inkinen, one of the founders of Trulia.com 

Inkinen and co-founder Pete Flint were recently named ""15 Others Who've Had an Impact" on real estate in 2006 by Realtor® Magazine Online:

"Both consumer- and agent-friendly, Pete Flint and Sami Inkinen's not yet two-year-old Trulia raises the bar for real estate searches online. Mapping is only part of the appeal; the site also provides a spectrum of unbiased information from days on market and cost per square foot to housing comparables. Once the site interests consumers with an intuitive interface and clever graphics, it quickly shifts prospective customers to the site of the listing broker advertising the property." Imagine that!

Today Trulia.com announced an advisory panel of real estate leaders. Real Living COO Kaira Rouda is on the board.  

Thanks to Sellsius° Blog for turning me on to 'The Real Estate Economy' blog

 

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This post provided by Maureen McCabe of Real Living HER

Contact 614.388.8249

Website: MaureenMcCabe.com

Search Columbus mls online


email: MaureenatMaureenMcCabe.com   @

Information is deemed to be accurate but should be verified to your satisfaction.  Information provided herein is supplied by several sources and is subject to change without notice.  Opinions expressed are solely those of Maureen McCabe.

Non Member comments occasionally closed due to heavy spam! 


 

11 comments • Maureen McCabe Columbus Ohio real estate • December 13 2006 04:52PM